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To reveal the water resource utilization and structure in the Sanjiang Plain region and achieve efficient use of regional water resources, theoretical models for calculating water footprints and indicators for evaluating water resource carrying capacity were introduced. The spatiotemporal evolution of crop production water footprints, dominant influencing factors, and internal driving mechanisms in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District from 2001 to 2021 was quantified. The irrigation water demand for different types of crops within the planned year was also forecasted and the balance of crop production water footprints, dominant influencing factors, and internal driving mechanisms in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District from 2001 to 2021 was evaluated. It also predicted the irrigation water demand for different types of crops within the planned year and evaluated the balance of crop production water demand and supply, as well as the status of water resource carrying capacity. The results indicated that the total water footprint and blue water footprint for crop production showed a gradually decreasing trend, while the green water footprint and gray water footprint exhibited a fluctuating trend. The total water footprint of corn remained unchanged, maintaining a relatively stable level, whereas the water footprint of rice, soybeans, and other crops continued to decrease. There were significant regional differences in the crop production water footprint in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District. The eastern region, with relatively higher annual precipitation, had a lower blue water footprint for crop production, but relatively higher green and gray water footprints. Special attention needed to be paid to the water resource use in the western region. In the evaluation of water resource carrying capacity indicators, except for the Xingkai Lake Farm, which was critically overloaded, the results of the total water use evaluation, groundwater evaluation, and comprehensive evaluation for the remaining farms were overloaded or severely overloaded, indicating a serious water shortage situation, with the 856 Farm suffering the most severe water scarcity. Although the sustainable use of water resources in the Xingkai Lake Irrigation District improved in recent years, there were obvious spatiotemporal differences and uneven regional distribution. It was still necessary to continuously optimize the crop planting structure and improve the level of sustainable water resource use in conjunction with the regional resource endowment and industrial layout.