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基于TiDE-PatchTST模型的柑橘冷藏效率時(shí)序預(yù)測(cè)模型優(yōu)化
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2022YFD2001804,、2023YFD2001302)和北京市農(nóng)林科學(xué)院科研創(chuàng)新平臺(tái)建設(shè)項(xiàng)目(PT2024-24)


Optimization of Citrus Cold Storage Efficiency Time-series Prediction Model Based on TiDE-PatchTST
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    摘要:

    柑橘低溫貯藏過(guò)程中果實(shí)溫度波動(dòng)是引發(fā)果品品質(zhì)安全風(fēng)險(xiǎn)與增加制冷能耗的關(guān)鍵因素,同時(shí)果品品質(zhì)與制冷能耗也是評(píng)判柑橘冷藏效率的重要評(píng)價(jià)指標(biāo),,實(shí)現(xiàn)兩者動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)可為科學(xué)預(yù)知與精準(zhǔn)優(yōu)化柑橘冷藏效率提供可靠支持,。本文提出一種基于PatchTST的柑橘冷藏效率時(shí)序預(yù)測(cè)模型。首先,,基于自注意力機(jī)制和獨(dú)立預(yù)測(cè)方法(Channel independent,CI)構(gòu)建基礎(chǔ)PatchTST模型,;其次,通過(guò)融合基礎(chǔ)PatchTST模型與TiDE模型中的協(xié)變量特征提取模塊,,實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)多元時(shí)序數(shù)據(jù)集中全部序列的特征提取,,并有效改進(jìn)模型預(yù)測(cè)精度,;最后,基于皮爾森相關(guān)性分析方法定量分析冷庫(kù)制冷參數(shù)與能耗,、柑橘溫度的相關(guān)性,,確定TiDE-PatchTST模型輸入?yún)?shù),并基于5000組實(shí)驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù)實(shí)現(xiàn)多種模型訓(xùn)練與測(cè)試,,對(duì)比驗(yàn)證TiDE-PatchTST模型的準(zhǔn)確性與優(yōu)越性,。結(jié)果表明,基于TiDE-PatchTST模型的冷庫(kù)能耗預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)驗(yàn)值平均絕對(duì)誤差(MAE)和均方根誤差(RMSE)分別為3.645W·h和10.421W·h,,柑橘溫度預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)驗(yàn)值的MAE和RMSE分別為0.034℃和0.042℃,,相比Transformer模型,能耗預(yù)測(cè)的MAE和RMSE最高分別下降41.43%和39.27%,,柑橘溫度預(yù)測(cè)的MAE和RMSE最高分別下降46.03%和28.81%,。本研究可為柑橘冷藏過(guò)程溫度波動(dòng)與能耗動(dòng)態(tài)感知與優(yōu)化調(diào)控等提供可靠方法支持與參考。

    Abstract:

    The temperature fluctuation during the low-temperature storage process of citrus is a key factor that triggers quality and safety risks for the fruit and increases refrigeration energy consumption. Simultaneously, quality and energy consumption are crucial evaluation indicators for assessing the efficiency of citrus cold storage. Achieving dynamic predictions for both aspects can provide reliable support for scientifically anticipating and precisely optimizing citrus cold storage efficiency. In light of this, a citrus cold storage efficiency time-series prediction model was proposed based on PatchTST. Firstly, a basic PatchTST model was constructed based on the self-attention mechanism and the channel independent (CI) prediction method. Secondly, by integrating the basic PatchTST model with the covariate feature extraction module from the TiDE model, feature extraction for all sequences in the multivariate time series dataset was achieved, effectively improving the model’s prediction accuracy. Finally, quantitative analysis of the correlation between cold storage refrigeration parameters, energy consumption, and citrus temperature was conducted by using the Pearson correlation analysis method. This analysis helped determine the input parameters for the TiDE-PatchTST model. The model was then trained and tested with 5000 sets of experimental data, and its accuracy and superiority were compared and validated against other models like basic PatchTST and Informer. The results showed that the predicted cold storage energy consumption values of the TiDE-PatchTST model had average absolute errors (MAE) and root mean square errors (RMSE) of 3.645W·h and 10.421W·h, respectively. The MAE and RMSE for citrus temperature predictions were 0.034℃ and 0.042℃, respectively. Compared with Transformer model, the MAE and RMSE in energy consumption predictions were decreased by up to 41.43% and 39.27%, and in citrus temperature predictions, they were decreased by up to 46.03% and 28.81%. The research result can provide strong support for the dynamic perception and optimization control of temperature fluctuations and energy consumption during the citrus cold storage process.

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楊信廷,郭向陽(yáng),韓佳偉,劉彤,楊霖.基于TiDE-PatchTST模型的柑橘冷藏效率時(shí)序預(yù)測(cè)模型優(yōu)化[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2024,55(7):396-404. YANG Xinting, GUO Xiangyang, HAN Jiawei, LIU Tong, YANG Lin. Optimization of Citrus Cold Storage Efficiency Time-series Prediction Model Based on TiDE-PatchTST[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2024,55(7):396-404.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-11-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2024-07-10
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