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氣候變化背景下山西省氣象干旱時(shí)空演變特征
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(52209070)和國(guó)家外國(guó)專家項(xiàng)目(QN2022172005L)


Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Drought Disasters in Shanxi Province under Background of Climate Change
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    摘要:

    干旱頻發(fā)對(duì)生態(tài)資源、農(nóng)業(yè)發(fā)展造成了嚴(yán)重影響,,為揭示山西省干旱時(shí)空演變特征,,基于1971—2020年山西省24個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)的逐月氣象資料,利用改進(jìn)的Mann-Kendall方法檢驗(yàn)各氣象因子的年變化趨勢(shì),,采用FAO56 Penman-Monteith公式計(jì)算參考作物騰發(fā)量(ET0),,分析單個(gè)氣象因子變化情況下ET0的變化特征和對(duì)氣象因子的敏感性,比較各時(shí)間尺度(月,、季,、年尺度)不同干旱指數(shù)(降水距平百分率(Pa)、標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水指數(shù)(SPI)和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸散指數(shù)(SPEI))對(duì)山西省干旱災(zāi)害監(jiān)測(cè)能力,。結(jié)果表明:ET0與相對(duì)濕度呈負(fù)相關(guān),,氣象因子對(duì)ET0的敏感性由大到小依次為相對(duì)濕度、日最高氣溫,、2m處風(fēng)速,、日最低氣溫、日平均氣溫,,ET0呈波動(dòng)下降趨勢(shì),。SPEI能夠在多時(shí)間尺度上有效反映山西省干旱狀況,是該地區(qū)干旱監(jiān)測(cè)的有效工具,。在月,、季、年尺度下,比較3個(gè)干旱指數(shù),, Pa檢測(cè)效果較差,,〖JP2〗SPI和SPEI在某些地理區(qū)域存在較大差異,整體而言,,SPEI在多數(shù)地區(qū)檢測(cè)干旱的性能更好,;SPEI-1〖JP〗尺度下,各干旱等級(jí)發(fā)生頻率由大到小依次為輕旱(14.8%),、中旱(10.6%),、重旱(5.6%)、特旱(1.9%),,3月干旱發(fā)生率最高(34%),,12月發(fā)生率最低(31.8%),呂梁市,、晉中市,、大同市干旱情況較為嚴(yán)重;SPEI-3尺度下,,季節(jié)發(fā)生干旱頻率由大到小依次為秋季(33.5%),、夏季(32.5%)、春季(31.9%),、冬季(31.4%),,大同市、長(zhǎng)治市特旱發(fā)生頻率最高,,旱情最為嚴(yán)重,,忻州市輕旱頻率、朔州市中旱頻率,、呂梁市重旱頻率最高,;SPEI-12尺度下,輕,、中,、重、特旱頻率分別為14.8%,、10.5%,、5.4%、2.3%,,SPEI-12相較SPEI-1和SPEI-3識(shí)別重旱,、特旱的站點(diǎn)更多,并基于游程理論得出,,山西省南部干旱頻次更多,,東部干旱歷時(shí)更長(zhǎng),、干旱嚴(yán)重程度更大,干旱峰值主要出現(xiàn)在山西省南北部,,由于年均降水呈波動(dòng)性下降,年均氣溫整體上升,,山西省的氣候趨于暖干化,,南北部旱情將有所加重,中部地區(qū)旱情有所減緩,,全域性干旱仍有很大發(fā)生可能,。

    Abstract:

    Frequent droughts caused serious impacts on ecological resources and agricultural development. In order to reveal the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of drought in Shanxi Province, based on the month-by-month meteorological data from 24 meteorological stations in Shanxi Province from 1971 to 2020, the annual trends of each meteorological factor were examined by using the improved Mann-Kendall method, and the FAO56 Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) of reference crop emergence, analyze the characteristics of ET0 and its sensitivity to meteorological factors under the changes of individual meteorological factors, and compare the ability of different drought indices (percentage of precipitation anomaly (Pa), standardized precipitation index (SPI), and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)) in monitoring drought hazards in Shanxi Province at various time scales (monthly, seasonal, and annual scales). The results showed that ET0 was negatively correlated with relative humidity, and the sensitivity of meteorological factors to ET0 was in descending order of relative humidity, daily maximum temperature, wind speed at 2m, daily minimum temperature, daily average temperature, with a fluctuating and decreasing trend of ET0. SPEI was able to reflect the drought condition of Shanxi Province effectively in multiple time scales, which was an effective tool for drought monitoring in this region. Comparing the three drought indices at monthly, seasonal and annual scales, Pa was less effective in detecting droughts, SPI and SPEI differed significantly in some geographic regions, and overall, SPEI performed better in detecting droughts in most regions; at the SPEI-1 scale, the frequency of each drought class in descending order was light drought (14.8%), moderate drought (10.6%), severe drought (5.6%), extreme drought (1.9%), with the highest occurrence rate of drought in March (34%) and the lowest in December (31.8%), and more severe drought conditions in Lüliang City, Jinzhong City, and Datong City; under the SPEI-3 scale, the frequency of seasonal drought, in descending order, was in the fall (33.5%), summer (32.5%), spring (31.9%), and winter (31.4%), and Datong City, Changzhi City had the highest frequency of special drought and the most serious drought, and Xinzhou City, Shuozhou City, and Lüliang City had the highest frequency of light, moderate, and severe drought, respectively; at the SPEI-12 scale, the frequencies of light, moderate, severe, and special drought were 14.8%, 10.5%, 5.4%, and 2.3%, respectively, and SPEI-12 recognized more sites with severe and special drought compared with SPEI-1 and SPEI-3, and based on the travel theory, it was concluded that the frequency of drought in southern Shanxi Province was higher than that of other provinces in China. It was concluded that the frequency of drought was more frequent in the southern part of Shanxi Province, the drought in the eastern part lasted longer and the severity of drought was greater, and the peak of drought mainly occurred in the northern and southern parts of Shanxi Province. Due to the fluctuating decline of the mean annual precipitation and the overall increase of the mean annual temperature, the climate in Shanxi Province tended to be warm and dry, the drought in the southern and northern parts of Shanxi Province would be aggravated, the drought in the central part of Shanxi Province would be slowed down, and the whole-area drought was still very possible.

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姚寧,蔣昆昊,謝文馨,張東彥,楊曉娟,于強(qiáng).氣候變化背景下山西省氣象干旱時(shí)空演變特征[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2024,55(1):270-281. YAO Ning, JIANG Kunhao, XIE Wenxin, ZHANG Dongyan, YANG Xiaojuan, YU Qiang. Temporal and Spatial Evolution of Drought Disasters in Shanxi Province under Background of Climate Change[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2024,55(1):270-281.

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  • 收稿日期:2023-06-13
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-10-01
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