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四川省不同SPEI指數(shù)計(jì)算方法適用性評(píng)價(jià)
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聯(lián)合國(guó)教科文組織項(xiàng)目(4500469020)


Application Evaluation of Different SPEI Index Calculation Methods in Sichuan Province
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    摘要:

    為探究不同參考作物騰發(fā)量(ET0)算法及相應(yīng)標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化降水蒸散指數(shù)(SPEI)在四川省的適用性,針對(duì)四川省3個(gè)區(qū)域(川西高原,、川西南山地和川中盆地),,利用34個(gè)氣象站點(diǎn)1967—2016年的氣象資料,以Penman-Monteith(PM)法計(jì)算的ET0為標(biāo)準(zhǔn),,對(duì)FAO-24Radiation(FAO-Ra),、Priestley-Taylor(PT)、Makkink(MK),、Hargreaves-Samani(HS),、Blaney-Criddle(BC)、World Meteorological Organization(WMO),、Rohwer(Ro)7種方法的ET0計(jì)算結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較,,并選取其中綜合表現(xiàn)較好的3種方法進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的SPEI計(jì)算。通過時(shí)間序列分析,、誤差分析,、K-S檢驗(yàn)及小波分析等方法,探討各區(qū)域不同ET0算法下的SPEI適用性,。結(jié)果表明:7種方法在不同區(qū)域計(jì)算精度差異顯著,,在川西高原及川西南山地,PT法均方根誤差(RMSE)均在99.11mm以下,,大部分氣象站點(diǎn)的相對(duì)誤差(RE)介于-3.8%~14.2%之間,,適用性最好;MK,、Ro法在3個(gè)區(qū)域的表現(xiàn)均較為穩(wěn)定,?;赑M、MK,、Ro,、PT 4種方法計(jì)算得到的SPEI在同一區(qū)域變化趨勢(shì)一致,在有實(shí)際旱情的年份,,其最小值均低于0,,能夠識(shí)別歷史干旱事件。SPEI_PT和SPEI_PM具有最相似的周期振蕩變化,,SPEI_Ro和SPEI_PM的周期差距最大,。1個(gè)月時(shí)間尺度的SPEI相關(guān)性比3、12個(gè)月時(shí)間尺度好,,在1個(gè)月時(shí)間尺度下,,SPEI_MK與SPEI_PM有更好的相關(guān)性,相關(guān)系數(shù)達(dá)到0.99,,RMSE僅為0.15,。在數(shù)據(jù)缺失條件下,SPEI_MK可以作為SPEI_PM的替代,,該方法可為四川省的干旱監(jiān)測(cè)和防控提供理論依據(jù),。

    Abstract:

    Drought episodes have become the main natural hazards all over the world, resulting in a serious limitation to agricultural production. Based on the daily meteorological data of 34 meteorological stations in Sichuan Province from 1967 to 2016, the reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was calculated by comparing the Penman-Monteith method (PM) and seven simplified ET0 methods. The simplified ET0 methods included Hargreaves-Samani (HS) method, Blaney-Criddle (BC) method, Priestley-Taylor (PT) method, Makkink (MK) method, FAO-24Radiation (FAO-Ra) method, Rohwer (Ro) method and World Meteorological Organization (WMO) method. The standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) was calculated based on PM and the three ET0 methods with better performances. To obtain the best calculation methods and assess its adaptability, Sichuan Province was divided into three regions, such as western plateau, southwestern mountain, and central Sichuan basin. The applicability of corresponding SPEI was evaluated with different ET0 methods in each region by time series analysis, error analysis, K-S test and wavelet analysis. The results showed that there were significant differences in the calculation accuracy of seven methods in different regions. The PT method had the best applicability in western plateau and southwestern mountain although the root mean square error (RMSE) of PT method was below 99.11mm and the relative error (RE) of most sites was -3.8%~14.2%. The MK and Ro methods had the stable performances in three regions since the RMSE of both were below 160mm. The SPEI calculated on the basis of PM, MK, Ro and PT ET0 methods had the same trend in the same region. In the year with actual drought event, the minimum values of SPEI were less than 0 so it can identify historical drought events. SPEI_PT and SPEI_PM had the most similar periodic oscillation changes, and the periodic gap between SPEI_Ro and SPEI_PM was the largest. The SPEI correlation at 1 month timescale was better than that at 3 month and 12 month timescales. There was the best correlation between SPEI_MK and SPEI_PM at 1 month timescale, with the correlation coefficient (r) of 0.99 and RMSE of 0.15. Therefore, SPEI_MK can be used as an alternative to SPEI_PM under the condition of missing data. This research can provide a theoretical evidence for drought monitoring and mitigation in Sichuan Province, and it can also give a reference for research in other areas.

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康銀紅,王嘉馳,宋鑫,武劍飛,賀帥.四川省不同SPEI指數(shù)計(jì)算方法適用性評(píng)價(jià)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2023,54(6):340-349. KANG Yinhong, WANG Jiachi, SONG Xin, WU Jianfei, HE Shuai. Application Evaluation of Different SPEI Index Calculation Methods in Sichuan Province[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(6):340-349.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-11-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-01-28
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