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三江平原ET0時(shí)空特征及其未來情景下預(yù)測(cè)研究
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國(guó)家自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(51979038,、51825901)、國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2017YFC0406004),、黑龍江省自然科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目(E2015024)和黑龍江省水文圖集修編項(xiàng)目(SWJFS-2018-009)


Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction under Future Scenarios of ET0 in Sanjiang Plain
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    摘要:

    參考作物蒸發(fā)量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,,ET0)的預(yù)測(cè)對(duì)作物需水量計(jì)算與田間水分管理具有重大意義,可為農(nóng)業(yè)節(jié)水和水資源高效利用提供重要的科學(xué)依據(jù),?;谌皆?個(gè)氣象站1961—2010年逐日氣象資料,采用Penman-Monteith(P-M)公式計(jì)算ET0,,對(duì)歷史期(1961—2010年)ET0及相關(guān)氣象要素的時(shí)空特征進(jìn)行分析,;依據(jù)美國(guó)國(guó)家環(huán)境預(yù)報(bào)中心再分析數(shù)據(jù)以及大氣環(huán)流模型(GCM)中加拿大CanESM2模式的預(yù)報(bào)因子日序列的輸出數(shù)據(jù),采用統(tǒng)計(jì)降尺度模型(SDSM)對(duì)未來RCP4.5和RCP8.5兩種排放情景下的ET0進(jìn)行預(yù)測(cè),。結(jié)果表明:歷史期ET0呈上升趨勢(shì),,多年年平均氣溫與ET0趨勢(shì)相同,而年平均風(fēng)速,、相對(duì)濕度和凈輻射整體呈下降趨勢(shì),,空間分布上多年年平均ET0總體表現(xiàn)為中部高于周邊、西部高于東部的趨勢(shì),;模擬精度檢驗(yàn)方面,,基于CanESM2模式下historical情景模擬的ET0模擬值與P-M公式的ET0計(jì)算值進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),兩者對(duì)應(yīng)率定期+驗(yàn)證期(1961—2005年)的納什效率系數(shù)(NSE)為0.46~0.61,,決定系數(shù)R2為0.53~0.61,,說明SDSM模擬效果較好,。未來2011—2100年年內(nèi)ET0變化中,,兩種情景下2011—2040年,、2041—2070年、2071—2100年3個(gè)未來時(shí)段月平均日值的變化趨勢(shì)與歷史期基本一致,,均似開口向下的拋物線狀,,且表現(xiàn)為不同程度的上升趨勢(shì);未來2011—2100年年際ET0變化中,,未來ET0較歷史期為上升趨勢(shì),,RCP4.5情景下3個(gè)未來時(shí)段較歷史期分別增加11.11%、18.70%,、20.24%,,其中2011—2040年時(shí)段多年ET0為較明顯上升趨勢(shì),2041—2070年,、2071—2100年時(shí)段總體為較緩下降趨勢(shì),;RCP8.5情景下3個(gè)時(shí)段較歷史期分別增加13.01%、24.05%,、34.46%,,3個(gè)時(shí)段內(nèi)多年ET0均為上升趨勢(shì)。研究區(qū)未來ET0的升高可能導(dǎo)致水資源短缺問題進(jìn)一步加劇,,研究結(jié)果可為研究區(qū)水資源優(yōu)化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科學(xué)參考,。

    Abstract:

    The prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) is great significant for crop water requirement calculation and field water management, which can provide an important scientific basis for agricultural water conservation and efficient use of water resources. Based on the day-by-day meteorological data of six meteorological stations in the Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010, the Penman-Monteith formula was used to calculate ET0 and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET0 and related meteorological elements from 1961 to 2010; based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the output data of the daily series of the CanESM2 forecast factor of the atmospheric circulation model, the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) was used to predict ET0 under two emission scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results showed that the ET0 from 1961 to 2010 showed an increasing trend, the multi-year annual mean temperature and ET0 trend were the same, while the annual mean wind speed, relative humidity and net radiation showed an overall decreasing trend, and the spatial distribution of multi-year annual mean ET0 showed a general trend that the central part was higher than the periphery, and the western part was higher than the eastern part; in terms of simulation accuracy test, the ET0 simulation values of “historical” simulation under CanESM2 model and the calculated values of the P-M formula corresponded to the Nash efficiency coefficient (NSE) range of 0.46~0.61 and the coefficient of determination R2 range of 0.53~0.61 for the regular + validation period (1961—2005), which implied that the SDSM simulation was effective. The trends of the monthly average daily values of ET0 in the three future time periods of 2011—2040, 2041—2070, and 2071—2100 under the two scenarios in the future 2011—2100 intra-annual ET0 changes were relatively consistent, all resembling a parabola with a downward opening, with May-July significantly higher than the level of the historical period (1961—2010), January-April and August slightly higher than the historical period, and September-December gradually converged with the historical period. The future change of ET0 between 2011—2100 would on an upward trend compared with the historical period, and the three time periods of 2011—2040, 2041—2070, and 2071—2100 under RCP4.5 scenario would be increased by 11.11%, 18.70%, and 20.24%, respectively, compared with the historical period, with the multi-year ET0 in the time period of 2011—2040 on a more obvious upward trend. The overall downward trend would slower in the 2041—2070 and 2071—2100 time periods; the three time periods under the RCP8.5 scenario would be increased by 13.01%, 24.05%, and 34.46%, respectively, compared with the historical period, and the multi-year ET0 would on the rise in all three time periods. The future increase of ET0 in the study area may lead to aggravation of water shortage problem, and the results of the study may provide scientific reference for optimal water resources management and irrigation system formulation in the study area.

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邢貞相,王紅利,王欣蕾,喻熠,段維義,付強(qiáng).三江平原ET0時(shí)空特征及其未來情景下預(yù)測(cè)研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2023,54(6):328-339. XING Zhenxiang, WANG Hongli, WANG Xinlei, YU Yi, DUAN Weiyi, FU Qiang. Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction under Future Scenarios of ET0 in Sanjiang Plain[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2023,54(6):328-339.

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  • 收稿日期:2022-10-05
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2023-02-10
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