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基于雙參數(shù)和粒子濾波同化算法的夏玉米單產(chǎn)估測
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國家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2016YFD030060303-3)


Estimation of Summer Maize Yield Based on Bi-variables and Particle Filter Assimilation Algorithm
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    摘要:

    為了提高河北省中部平原夏玉米的估產(chǎn)精度和進(jìn)一步驗(yàn)證粒子濾波同化算法對農(nóng)業(yè)作物估產(chǎn)的適用性,采用粒子濾波算法同化CERES-Maize模型模擬和MODIS數(shù)據(jù)反演的葉面積指數(shù)(Leaf area index,,LAI),、條件植被溫度指數(shù)(Vegetation temperature condition index, VTCI),,應(yīng)用隨機(jī)森林回歸算法確定夏玉米不同生育時(shí)期LAI和VTCI的權(quán)重,,構(gòu)建單產(chǎn)估測模型。結(jié)果表明,,無論是單點(diǎn)尺度還是區(qū)域尺度,,同化的LAI和VTCI均能較好地響應(yīng)外部觀測數(shù)據(jù),同化LAI可減緩CERES-Maize模型模擬LAI的劇烈變化,;同化VTCI結(jié)合模型模擬和遙感觀測,,更能反映夏玉米對水分脅迫的敏感性。利用2015年河北省中部平原各縣(區(qū))夏玉米產(chǎn)量對較優(yōu)估產(chǎn)模型進(jìn)行精度驗(yàn)證,,結(jié)果表明,,同化前后夏玉米產(chǎn)量模擬結(jié)果與統(tǒng)計(jì)產(chǎn)量間的歸一化均方根誤差由12.71%下降到10.50%,平均相對誤差由12.57%下降到8.43%,,說明基于同化LAI和VTCI構(gòu)建的雙參數(shù)單產(chǎn)估產(chǎn)模型可用于區(qū)域夏玉米單產(chǎn)估測,。

    Abstract:

    To validate the feasibility of particle filter assimilation algorithm for crop yield estimation, and improve accuracy of summer maize yield estimation in the central plain of Hebei Province, the leaf area index (LAI) and vegetation temperature condition index(VTCI) simulated by the CERES-Maize model were assimilated with the state variables retrieved from MODIS data. The random forest method was used for determining the weights of different variables at the growth stages of summer maize. The maize yield estimation model was established based on the weights of variables and measured yield. The results showed that no matter at the sampling sites or at regional scale, the assimilated LAI and VTCI were better able to respond the monitored LAI and VTCI, the assimilated LAI decreased the sharp changing points which LAIs were simulated by CERES-Maize, the assimilated VTCI was in good agreement with those of both the remotely sensed VTCI and the simulated VTCI, and the assimilated VTCI was a good index for indicating crop water stress of summer maize. The optimal model was selected for summer maize yield and estimation accuracy of the year 2015 in the central plain of Hebei Province, normalized root mean square error (NRMSE) between simulated and observed summer maize yields before and after performing PF assimilation scheme was decreased from 12.71% to 10.50%, and relative error (RE) was decreased from 12.57% to 8.43%. Therefore, the established yield model based on the assimilated LAI and VTCI fully integrated the advantages of remote sensing information and crop model, and can be used for estimating summer maize yield accurately.

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王鵬新,胡亞京,李俐,喬琛.基于雙參數(shù)和粒子濾波同化算法的夏玉米單產(chǎn)估測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2021,52(3):168-177. WANG Pengxin, HU Yajing, LI Li, QIAO Chen. Estimation of Summer Maize Yield Based on Bi-variables and Particle Filter Assimilation Algorithm[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2021,52(3):168-177.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-06-07
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2021-03-10
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