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土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展評價及障礙因子診斷
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國家自然科學基金項目(71503103)、安徽省科技創(chuàng)新戰(zhàn)略與軟科學研究項目(201806a02020058)和安徽省高校人文社會科學研究重大項目(SK2016SD60)


Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Land Intensive Use and Urbanization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors
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    摘要:

    為了探究土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化的耦合協(xié)調關系,,促進兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展,,以安徽省為例,首先,,運用熵權TOPSIS模型,,分別評價安徽省2000—2017年土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化績效水平,,研判兩者的績效水平及其子系統(tǒng)變化趨勢,;然后,運用耦合度和協(xié)調度模型,,基于耦合作用系數的取值變化,,探討不同情形下安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展關系及變化趨勢;最后,,運用障礙度模型,,診斷影響安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展的障礙因子。結果表明:2000—2017年,,安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化水平均呈逐年上升態(tài)勢,,穩(wěn)中趨好。2000—2017年安徽省土地集約利用績效水平從0.0536增至0.9587,,年均增長18.49%,;安徽省城鎮(zhèn)化水平從0.2715增至0.8180,年均增長6.70%,。從土地集約利用各子系統(tǒng)來看,,經濟績效子系統(tǒng)對土地集約利用的貢獻最大,生態(tài)績效子系統(tǒng)對土地集約利用的貢獻最小,,權重分別為0.3526和0.1308,;從城鎮(zhèn)化各子系統(tǒng)來看,,經濟城鎮(zhèn)化子系統(tǒng)對城鎮(zhèn)化水平影響最大,生態(tài)城鎮(zhèn)化子系統(tǒng)對城鎮(zhèn)化水平影響最小,,權重分別為0.4160和0.1377,。在不同耦合作用系數取值情形下,安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展關系變化趨勢除2005年和2012年略有不同外,,其余16年兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展變化趨勢和協(xié)調類型完全相同,,說明耦合作用系數對兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展關系的影響十分有限。2000—2017年安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化的協(xié)調發(fā)展度呈逐年增長態(tài)勢,。從各子系統(tǒng)障礙度來看,,土地集約利用經濟子系統(tǒng)對安徽省土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展的影響最大,年均障礙度為16.48%,;生態(tài)城鎮(zhèn)化子系統(tǒng)對兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展的影響最小,,年均障礙度為6.60%。從各指標障礙度來看,,2011年及以前,,影響兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展的障礙因子主要包括人民生活水平、地均財政收入和人均GDP,;2012年及以后,,影響兩者協(xié)調發(fā)展的障礙因子主要包括城鄉(xiāng)人均可支配收入差距和城鎮(zhèn)人口密度。從各年份前5位障礙因子變化來看,,各指標對土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展的影響可以分為2個階段:第1階段(2000—2013年)以土地集約利用的影響為主,,第2階段(2014—2017年)以城鎮(zhèn)化的影響為主。本研究為研判土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展水平及診斷障礙因子提供了新的思路和方法,,可為促進安徽省及同類省域土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展提供借鑒,。

    Abstract:

    The coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization plays an important role in promoting economic development. In order to explore the coupling and coordination relationship between land intensive use and urbanization and promote their coordinated development, the performance evaluation index system of land intensive use and urbanization was constructed respectively, and the evaluation index system of coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization was established on the basis. The land intensive use performance evaluation index system included four subsystems: economic performance, social performance, ecological performance and management performance, and the index system of urbanization performance evaluation included four subsystems: population urbanization, economic urbanization, social urbanization and ecological urbanization. Anhui Province was taken as an example. The TOPSIS model was used to evaluate the performance levels of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province from 2000 to 2017, and the performance levels of both and the variation trends of their subsystems were studied. Then, by using the coupling degree and coordination degree model and based on the value change of coupling effect coefficient, the relationship between land intensive use and coordinated development of urbanization in Anhui Province was discussed under different circumstances and the change trend. Finally, the obstacle degree model was used to diagnose the obstacle factors that affected the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province. It was found that from 2000 to 2017, both land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province were increased year by year, and the trend was steady and steady. The performance level of land intensive use in Anhui Province was increased from 0.0536 in 2000 to 0.9587 in 2017, with an average annual growth rate of 18.49%, and it experienced the development process of poor performance (2000—2006), intermediate performance (2007—2010), good performance (2011—2014) and high performance (2015—2017); the urbanization level of Anhui Province was increased from 0.2715 to 0.8180, with an average annual growth rate of 6.70%, and experienced a development process from poor performance (2000-2011) to intermediate performance (2012—2017). From the perspective of each subsystem of land intensive use, the subsystem of economic performance made the largest contribution to land intensive use, while the subsystem of ecological performance made the smallest contribution to land intensive use, with weights of 0.3526 and 0.1308 respectively, and from the perspective of each subsystem of urbanization, the economic urbanization subsystem had the greatest impact on the urbanization level, while the ecological urbanization subsystem had the least impact on the urbanization level, with weights of 0.4160 and 0.1377 respectively. In the case of different values of coupling effect coefficient, the change trend of the relationship between land intensive use and coordinated development of urbanization in Anhui Province was slightly different from that in 2005 and 2012, but the trend and type of coordinated development in the other 16 years were completely the same, and the influence of coupling effect coefficient on the relationship between the two was very limited. From 2000 to 2017, the coordinated development degree of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province was increased year by year, which experienced the unbalanced recession stage (2000—2001), low coordination stage (2002—2005), moderate coordination stage (2006—2012) and high coordination stage (2013—2017). From the perspective of the obstacle degree of each subsystem, the economic subsystem of land intensive use had the greatest impact on the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province, with an average annual obstacle degree of 16.48%, the subsystem of ecological urbanization had the least impact on the coordinated development of the two, with an average annual barrier of 6.60%. From the perspective of the obstacle degree of each indicator, the obstacle factors affecting the coordinated development of the two mainly include peoples living standard, per capita fiscal income and per capita GDP in 2011 and before, and in 2012 and after, the obstacles affecting the coordinated development of the two mainly include the gap of per capita disposable income between urban and rural areas and the density of urban population. From the perspective of the first five obstacle factors in each year, according to the impact of various indicators on the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization, it can be divided into two stages: the first stage (2000—2013) focused on the impact of land intensive use, and the second stage (2014—2017) focused on the impact of urbanization. The research results provided new ideas and methods for studying and judging the coordinated development level and obstacle factors of land intensive use and urbanization, so as to promote the coordinated development of land intensive use and urbanization in Anhui Province and other similar provinces. 

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雷勛平,QIU Robin,劉晨.土地集約利用與城鎮(zhèn)化協(xié)調發(fā)展評價及障礙因子診斷[J].農業(yè)機械學報,2020,51(6):138-151. LEI Xunping, QIU Robin, LIU Chen. Evaluation of Coordinated Development between Land Intensive Use and Urbanization and Diagnosis of Obstacle Factors[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2020,51(6):138-151.

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  • 收稿日期:2020-03-03
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2020-06-10
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