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基于GIS與RS的東北森林帶景觀格局演變與模擬預(yù)測(cè)
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國(guó)家重點(diǎn)研發(fā)計(jì)劃項(xiàng)目(2018YFC0507303-2)


Landscape Pattern Change and Prediction of Northeast Forest Belt Based on GIS and RS
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    研究東北森林帶景觀格局及演變,對(duì)評(píng)估我國(guó)東北地區(qū)生態(tài)安全具有重要意義。以東北森林帶為研究區(qū),選取2000年,、2005年、2010年,、2015年的MODIS遙感影像,,將東北森林帶景觀類型劃分為森林、草地,、濕地,、農(nóng)田、人工表面和其他用地6類,。對(duì)東北森林帶2000—2015年景觀格局變化進(jìn)行生態(tài)系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu),、生態(tài)系統(tǒng)轉(zhuǎn)換方向、景觀指數(shù)變化分析,,運(yùn)用MCE-CA-Markov模型,,模擬2020年東北森林帶景觀格局變化趨勢(shì)。研究結(jié)果表明:15年間,,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)整體呈穩(wěn)定狀態(tài),,前10年生態(tài)系統(tǒng)改善趨勢(shì)較強(qiáng),后5年轉(zhuǎn)變趨勢(shì)變緩,。人工表面逐年增加,,城市化進(jìn)程有所加快;草地的破碎化在15年間有所加劇,,而森林的破碎化程度較低且變動(dòng)較?。贿\(yùn)用MCE-CA-Markov模擬景觀格局演變是可行的,,模擬東北森林帶2015年景觀格局結(jié)果與MODIS分類結(jié)果一致,,Kappa系數(shù)為0.9181,相對(duì)精度達(dá)到80.88%,;預(yù)測(cè)結(jié)果顯示,,2020年東北森林帶的森林、農(nóng)田比例將進(jìn)一步下降,,草地,、人工表面比例進(jìn)一步上升。研究表明東北森林帶的生態(tài)環(huán)境恢復(fù)和重建將面臨較大壓力,。

    Abstract:

    As a part of the “two screens and three belts”, the northeast forest belt is a typical forest ecosystem in China. Studying its landscape pattern and changes is of great significance for assessing the ecological security of Northeast China. Based on the MODIS remote sensing images of 2000, 2005, 2010 and 2015, the landscape types of the northeast forest belt were divided into six categories: forest, grassland, wetland, farmland, artificial surface and other land use. The changes of landscape pattern in the northeast forest belt from 2000 to 2015 were analyzed in terms of ecosystem structure, direction of ecosystem transformation and landscape index. MCE-CA-Markov model was used to simulate the changing trend of landscape pattern in the northeast forest belt in 2020. The results showed that during the past 15 years, the ecosystem as a whole was in a stable state. The trend of ecosystem improvement in the first ten years was better, but the trend of change in the next five years was slower. The artificial surface was increased year by year, and the urbanization process was accelerated. The fragmentation of grassland was intensified in 15 years, while the degree of fragmentation of forests iwa low, and the changes in 15 years were small. It was feasible to use MCE-CA-Markov to simulate the evolution of landscape pattern. The results of the landscape pattern of the northeast forest belt in 2015 were consistent with the MODIS classification results. The Kappa coefficient was 0.9181 and the relative accuracy was 80.88%. The forecast results of the northeast forest belt in 2020 showed that the proportion of forests and farmland would further decline, and the proportion of grassland and artificial surface would further increase. The forecast results indicated that the ecological environment restoration and reconstruction in the northeast forest belt would face great pressure.

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蘇凱,王茵然,孫小婷,岳德鵬.基于GIS與RS的東北森林帶景觀格局演變與模擬預(yù)測(cè)[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2019,50(12):195-204. SU Kai, WANG Yinran, SUN Xiaoting, YUE Depeng. Landscape Pattern Change and Prediction of Northeast Forest Belt Based on GIS and RS[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(12):195-204.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-07-08
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-12-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-12-10
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