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基于積溫-輻射與LAI積分面積模型的玉米成熟期預(yù)測
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國家自然科學(xué)基金項目(41671418,、41471342、41371326)


Forecasting of Regional Maize Maturity Using Accumulated Temperature-Solar Radiation Model and Leaf Area Index Integral Area Model
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    摘要:

    為預(yù)測區(qū)域尺度的玉米成熟期,以4d的MODIS葉面積指數(shù)產(chǎn)品(LAI)為數(shù)據(jù)源,,選擇黑龍江省,、吉林省和遼寧省3省玉米為研究對象,,結(jié)合農(nóng)業(yè)氣象資料和全球多模式集合預(yù)報資料(THOPREX interactive grand gloabal ensemble,TIGGE),,采用積溫-輻射和LAI曲線積分面積兩種模型,,提前10d對東北地區(qū)玉米成熟期進行逐日動態(tài)預(yù)測,。結(jié)果表明,,LAI曲線積分面積模型的預(yù)測結(jié)果在時效和精度上均為最優(yōu),該模型決定系數(shù)R2達到0.87,,均方根誤差(RMSE)為2.5d,,并且有效地克服了當(dāng)前成熟期預(yù)測方法空間分辨率低和預(yù)測時效性差等局限性。LAI曲線積分面積模型適用于大面積農(nóng)作物成熟期預(yù)測,。

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    Accurate prediction of maize maturity is of great significance for efficient harvesting and agricultural machinery dispatch management. In order to predict the maturity of maize at the regional scale in advance, the 4day MODIS leaf area index (LAI) product was used as the data source, selecting the corn in Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning Provinces as the research object, combined with agricultural meteorological data and global multimodel ensemble forecast data. The dynamic prediction of maize maturity in Northeast China was carried out ten days in advance by using the accumulated temperature-solar radiation model and the LAI curve integral area model. The research showed that the prediction results of the integral area model of LAI curve were optimal in terms of time efficiency and precision. The coefficient of determination (R2) of the LAI curve integral area model was 0.87, the root mean square error (RMSE) was 2.5d, and it was effectively better than that of the accumulated temperature-solar radiation model. The current maturity prediction method had limitations such as low spatial resolution and poor prediction timeliness. It showed that the LAI curve integral area model method had applicability in the prediction of largearea crop maturity.

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黃健熙,王佳麗,黃然,黃海,蘇偉,朱德海.基于積溫-輻射與LAI積分面積模型的玉米成熟期預(yù)測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2019,50(12):133-143. HUANG Jianxi, WANG Jiali, HUANG Ran, HUANG Hai, SU Wei, ZHU Dehai. Forecasting of Regional Maize Maturity Using Accumulated Temperature-Solar Radiation Model and Leaf Area Index Integral Area Model[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(12):133-143.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-04-23
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-12-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-12-10
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