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基于XGBoost-ANN的城市綠地凈碳交換模擬與特征響應
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC0504400,、2017YFC0504406)和中央高?;究蒲袠I(yè)務費專項資金項目(2015ZCQ-SB-02)


Simulation of NEE and Characterization of Urban Green-land Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Controls Based on XGBoost-ANN
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    摘要:

    為分析城市綠地凈生態(tài)系統(tǒng)碳交換(Net ecosystem exchange,NEE)對環(huán)境因子的響應,,利用渦度相關法測量了2013—2016年生長季白天的NEE數據,,使用XGBoost以及ANN模型對NEE進行模擬和分析,,并通過決定系數(R2)、平均絕對誤差(MAE),、均方根誤差(RMSE)和一致性系數(IA)4個指標評價模擬精度,。結果表明,當輸入因子為光合有效輻射(PAR),、飽和水汽壓差(VPD),、空氣溫度(Ta)、相對濕度(RH),、土壤溫度(Ts),、風速(WS)、10cm處土壤含水率(VWC10)時,,模擬效果達到最優(yōu)。其訓練集精度R2為0.712,,RMSE為4.394μmol/(m2·s),,MAE為3.129μmol/(m2·s),IA為0.911,;測試集精度R2為0.748,,RMSE為4.253μmol/(m2·s),MAE為2.971μmol/(m2·s),,IA為0.920,。在考慮因子間相互作用后,環(huán)境因子對NEE的重要性排序從大到小依次為PAR,、VPD,、Ta、RH,、Ts,、WS、VWC10,;就單環(huán)境因子而言,,對NEE的重要性由大到小依次為Ta、Ts、RH,。通過計算生態(tài)系統(tǒng)凈生產力(Net ecosystem productivity,,NEP,即-NEE)對主要環(huán)境因子(PAR,、VPD,、Ta)的偏導數可知,生態(tài)系統(tǒng)光合作用表觀量子效率最大值為0.087,,并且當PAR大于1200μmol/(m2·s)時,,其不再是影響光合作用的主要因素;VPD偏導數的變化趨勢表明,,VPD對植物光合作用的影響以抑制性為主,,當VPD過大時,偏導數趨近于0,,此時植物葉片氣孔閉合,,抑制光合作用;Ta偏導數的變化趨勢說明,,隨著溫度的升高,,光合作用速率逐漸大于呼吸作用的速率。研究表明,,基于XGBoost與ANN模型能夠更為精確地模擬NEE動態(tài),,在相關環(huán)境因子中,PAR,、VPD,、Ta是影響NEE變化的主導因子,NEE對主要影響因子的生態(tài)特征響應趨勢可為理解碳循環(huán)關鍵過程提供參考,。

    Abstract:

    Aiming to analyze the responses of urban greenland’s net ecosystem exchange (NEE) to the climatic controls and provide theoretical and technical support for carbon cycle simulation between land and atmosphere. In growing season, halfhourly daytime NEE based on eddy covariance flux data collected from 2013 to 2016 were simulated by XGBoost and back propagation artificial neural network (ANN) model. Moreover, the accuracy of model was evaluated by using the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and index of agreement (IA). The experimental results showed that ANN model presented that seven input variables (photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), air temperature (Ta), relative humidity (RH), soil temperature (Ts), wind speed (WS) and volumetric water content at 10cm depth) performed best, yielding R2 of 0.712, RMSE of 4.394μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 3.129μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.911 on train dataset, and R2 of 0.748, RMSE of 4.253μmol/(m2·s), MAE of 2.971μmol/(m2·s) and IA of 0.920 on test dataset. After considering the function and interaction among the factors, the importance score of each environmental factor was decreased in the following order: PAR, VPD, Ta, RH, Ts, WS and VWC10, otherwise Ts would be more important than RH. In particularly, after calculating the numerical partial derivatives of main climatic controls for each halfhourly point, the numerical partial derivatives of PAR showed the ecosystem quantum yield with the value of 0.087, and it also indicated that PAR was no longer a main impact factor when value was greater than 1200μmol/(m2·s). Besides, the numerical partial derivatives of VPD expressed that VPD could mainly inhibit the photosynthesis, and the higher VPD aggravated the inhibition of photosynthesis by affecting photosynthetic rate. Furthermore, the numerical partial derivatives of Ta demonstrated that the photosynthetic rate was increased bit by bit and made the photosynthetic rate overpass respiration rate gradually. According to the result, PAR, VPD and Ta played an important role in controlling the NEE of urban greenland ecosystem. Also, XGBoost and ANN could be capable in capturing NEE dynamics and simulating the NEE with high accuracy. Meanwhile, the present result provided instant insight in underlying ecosystem physiology.

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齊建東,黃金澤,賈昕.基于XGBoost-ANN的城市綠地凈碳交換模擬與特征響應[J].農業(yè)機械學報,2019,50(5):269-278. QI Jiandong, HUANG Jinze, JIA Xin. Simulation of NEE and Characterization of Urban Green-land Ecosystem Responses to Climatic Controls Based on XGBoost-ANN[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(5):269-278.

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  • 收稿日期:2019-02-21
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-05-10
  • 出版日期: 2019-05-10
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