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基于區(qū)間兩階段模糊可信性約束模型的灌區(qū)水資源配置
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國家重點研發(fā)計劃項目(2017YFC0403201)


Optimal Water Allocation of Irrigation District Based on Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Fuzzy Credibility Constrained Programming
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    摘要:

    針對灌區(qū)水資源配置系統(tǒng)中的復雜性和不確定性,以湖北省漳河灌區(qū)為例,構建區(qū)間兩階段模糊可信性約束規(guī)劃模型,實現(xiàn)灌區(qū)各用水戶間水資源優(yōu)化配置。模型以系統(tǒng)經濟收益最大為目標函數(shù),引入模糊變量、離散區(qū)間和概率分布表征系統(tǒng)中的多重不確定性,設置可信性置信水平解決帶有違規(guī)概率的模糊風險問題。求解模型得到多種情景下水量、灌溉面積優(yōu)化配置結果以及系統(tǒng)收益,結果表明,模型可以有效處理配置系統(tǒng)的不確定性問題,反映系統(tǒng)收益與風險之間的權衡,實現(xiàn)灌區(qū)水資源高效配置。優(yōu)化結果有助于灌區(qū)管理者協(xié)調各用水戶的利益沖突,制定合理的決策方案。

    Abstract:

    Due to the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization, the consequent increasing conflict between limited water resources and increased water demands gradually led to unsustainability of water resources utilization in an irrigation district. Therefore, it is crucial to optimize the water allocation to alleviate water shortage and promote the sustainable development of irrigation district. Taking Zhanghe Irrigation District in Hubei Province as an example, an intervalparameter twostage stochastic fuzzy credibility constrained programming was developed for optimal water allocation. In the model, the maximal system benefit was regarded as the objective function. To reflect the multiple uncertainties, fuzzy variables, discrete intervals and probability distributions were introduced into the model framework. To address the fuzzy risk problems associated with the violation constraints, fuzzy credibility constrained programming was integrated into the intervalparameter twostage stochastic programming model. Meanwhile, several credibility significance levels were given to examine the system failure risk. Optimal allocation schemes were obtained in the combination of different credibility levels (λ), inflow levels and fuzzy membership levels (α). The results indicated that the water inflow was positively related to the water resources allocation and agricultural irrigation areas;water and irrigation area allocation to all divisions were increased with the decrease of credibility level, which resulted in system benefit’s expansion coupled with high violation risk. When λ was 10, the system benefit range was [0.741, 1.147] billion CNY, and when λ was set as 0.8, the system benefit reached [1.026, 1.325] billion CNY;with the increase of the α level, the system fuzzy feature was weakened, consequently the upper limit of the system benefit was gradually decreased and the lower limit of the system benefit was increased conversely;and the proposed model preferred to avoid high violation risk rather than purse high economic benefit impractically to some extent. The corresponding optimal results were helpful for managers to coordinate the conflict-laden water use issues, formulate reasonable allocation schemes, and achieve efficient utilization of water resources. Compared with the other optimal allocation in Zhanghe Irrigation District, the research had advantages as following: multiple uncertainties were considered and represented by proper mathematical methods;the tradeoff of system benefit and violation risk was reflected;multiple allocation schemes were provided under different scenarios;several engineering and nonengineering measures were suggested for sustainable development of Zhanghe Irrigation District;the analysis method and the model framework can also be applied to other similar regions.

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岳瓊,郭萍,王友芝,張成龍,李鵬.基于區(qū)間兩階段模糊可信性約束模型的灌區(qū)水資源配置[J].農業(yè)機械學報,2019,50(4):228-235. YUE Qiong, GUO Ping, WANG Youzhi, ZHANG Chenglong, LI Peng. Optimal Water Allocation of Irrigation District Based on Interval-parameter Two-stage Stochastic Fuzzy Credibility Constrained Programming[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2019,50(4):228-235.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-10-18
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2019-04-10
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