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基于1961—2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征評估
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國家自然科學基金項目(51769010、51109102、51469010)和云南省應(yīng)用基礎(chǔ)研究項目(2014FB130)


Assessment of Drought Characteristics in Yunnan Province Based on SPI and SPEI from 1961 to 2100
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    摘要:

    干旱是一個緩慢發(fā)展持續(xù)時間長的極端氣候事件,,而氣候變化對干旱的影響尤為顯著,評估氣候變化對云南省干旱特征的影響尤為重要,。使用多時間尺度的標準化降水指數(shù)(SPI)和標準降水蒸散指數(shù)(SPEI)分析了云南省的干旱狀況,,運用非超越概率和游程理論分別分析了SPI和SPEI的季節(jié)性變化和研究區(qū)域內(nèi)的干旱特征。結(jié)果表明:1961—1995年冬季SPEI(1)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率為5.2%,,但在2066—2100年增加到18.4%,;SPEI(6)小于等于-1.0的非超越概率從4.4%增加到21.4%,SPEI(24)從7.0%增加到25.7%,。表明由于氣候變化,,未來有可能發(fā)生嚴重干旱,且中長期干旱比短期干旱更嚴重,。氣候變化在1961—1995年和2066—2100年的冬季和夏季造成嚴重干旱,,且中長期干旱嚴重程度在整個冬季和夏季尤為明顯。將SPI和SPEI的時間序列應(yīng)用于游程理論,,發(fā)現(xiàn)1961—1995年SPEI(1)的干旱烈度為28.3,,到2066—2100年達到60.9,表明氣候變化使未來干旱加劇,。本研究結(jié)果對云南省干旱預(yù)測,、評估及其風險管理和應(yīng)用決策具有指導性和實用性,,同時可為未來旱作農(nóng)業(yè)生態(tài)管理提供一定的依據(jù)。

    Abstract:

    Drought is an extreme climate event with long duration of slow development, and the impact of climate change on drought is particularly significant, drought has become a global problem in a changing climate. Assessing the impact of climate change on the drought characteristics of Yunnan Province is particularly important. The drought conditions in Yunnan Province were analyzed by using the multi-time scale standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI). The seasonal variation of two indexes and the characteristics of drought in the region were analyzed by using non-exceedance probability and runs theory, respectively. The results showed that the non-exceedance probability of SPEI (1) below and equal to -1.0 in the winter of 1961—1995 was 5.2%, and it was increased to 18.4% from 2066 to 2100;the non-exceedance probability of SPEI (6) below and equal to -1.0 was increased from 4.4% to 21.4%, SPEI (24) was increased from 7.0% to 25.7%. It was showed that due to climate change, serious droughts may occur in the future, and the medium and long-term droughts were more serious than shortterm droughts. Severe droughts caused by climate change during the winter and summer periods from 1961 to 1995 and from 2066 to 2100, and the severity of medium and long-term droughts was particularly strong during winter and summer. SPI and SPEI time series were applied to the runs theory and it was found that the drought intensity determined by SPEI (1) from 1961 to 1995 was 28.3, which reached 60.9 by 2066 to 2100, indicating that the climate changes had exacerbated the future drought. The results were instructive and practical for drought prediction and assessment in Yunnan Province, as well as its risk management and application decisions. At the same time, it can provide a scientific reference for the future dry farming ecological management and drought evolution prediction.

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劉小剛,冷險險,孫光照,彭有亮,黃一峰,楊啟良.基于1961—2100年SPI和SPEI的云南省干旱特征評估[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學報,2018,49(12):236-245,,299. LIU Xiaogang, LENG Xianxian, SUN Guangzhao, PENG Youliang, HUANG Yifeng, YANG Qiliang. Assessment of Drought Characteristics in Yunnan Province Based on SPI and SPEI from 1961 to 2100[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2018,49(12):236-245,,299.

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  • 收稿日期:2018-05-29
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2018-12-10
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