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基于GLUE和PEST的CERES-Maize模型調(diào)參與驗(yàn)證研究
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國家高技術(shù)研究發(fā)展計(jì)劃(863 計(jì)劃)資助項(xiàng)目(2013AA102904),、國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(51209176)和高等學(xué)校學(xué)科創(chuàng)新引智計(jì)劃(111計(jì)劃)資助項(xiàng)目(B12007)


Parameter Estimation and Verification of CERES-Maize Model with GLUE and PEST Methods
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    摘要:

    作物模型已逐漸成為干旱和半干旱地區(qū)優(yōu)化農(nóng)田水肥管理和實(shí)施節(jié)水灌溉的有力決策支持工具。為了探討CERES-Maize模型模擬不同生育期受旱情況下夏玉米的生長發(fā)育、產(chǎn)量形成和土壤水分狀況的模擬精度,,進(jìn)行了2013和2014年連續(xù)兩季夏玉米田間分段受旱試驗(yàn),。試驗(yàn)將夏玉米整個(gè)生育期劃分為苗期,、拔節(jié),、抽雄和灌漿4個(gè)主要生長階段,,采用單個(gè)生育期受旱其他生育期灌水的方式,,形成4個(gè)不同的受旱時(shí)段水平(D1~D4),,又根據(jù)夏玉米多年生育期降雨量,設(shè)置了70和110mm兩個(gè)灌水水平(I1和I2),,共形成8個(gè)處理,,每個(gè)處理3次重復(fù),在遮雨棚內(nèi)按照裂區(qū)試驗(yàn)布設(shè),,此外設(shè)置1個(gè)各生育期均灌水110mm的對(duì)照處理(CK),。利用兩年試驗(yàn)數(shù)據(jù),采用DSSAT-GLUE和PEST兩種不同的模型參數(shù)估計(jì)工具,,對(duì)CERES-Maize模型的遺傳參數(shù)進(jìn)行估計(jì),,并對(duì)該模型的模擬精度和可靠性進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,此外還使用交叉驗(yàn)證法對(duì)CERES-Maize模型的整體模擬精度進(jìn)行評(píng)估,。結(jié)果表明,,GLUE和PEST兩種調(diào)參工具所得的模型參數(shù)均有較好的穩(wěn)定性和收斂性,但PEST調(diào)參工具耗時(shí)較少,效率較高,;CERES-Maize模型能較好地模擬充分灌水條件下夏玉米的生長發(fā)育,、產(chǎn)量和土壤水分變化,絕對(duì)相對(duì)誤差(ARE)和相對(duì)均方根誤差(RRMSE)均在6%~8%之間,;但是現(xiàn)有CERES-Maize模型無法模擬由于不同生育期受旱造成的夏玉米物候期的差異,。此外,交叉驗(yàn)證結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)夏玉米生長前期(特別是拔節(jié)期)受旱處理的數(shù)據(jù)參與模型校正時(shí),,模型的總體平均模擬誤差較大,,精度較低。CERES-Maize模型模擬前期受旱對(duì)玉米籽粒產(chǎn)量的影響時(shí)結(jié)果不夠準(zhǔn)確,,這可能是由于該模型低估了早期水分脅迫條件下的LAI值,,進(jìn)而使得ET模擬不準(zhǔn)確所造成的??傊?,CERES-Maize模型對(duì)生育期前期(特別是拔節(jié)期)受旱條件下夏玉米生長發(fā)育、產(chǎn)量形成和土壤水分變化的模擬還存在一定的不足,,若將CERES-Maize模型應(yīng)用于我國干旱和半干旱地區(qū)水分脅迫條件下玉米的生產(chǎn)管理和科學(xué)研究,,應(yīng)對(duì)模型進(jìn)行相應(yīng)的修正。

    Abstract:

    Crop model has been becoming a powerful tool for agricultural water and nitrogen management and implementation of watersaving irrigation. This study was to explore the accuracy of CERES-Maize model for its simulations of summer maize growth, development, yield, and soil moisture under different scenarios of water stress. Field experiments were conducted under a rainout shelter for summer maize growing under water stresses at different growth stages in two consecutive growth seasons (2013 and 2014). The whole growth season of maize was divided into four stages (seeding, jointing, tasseling, and grain filling). Water stress occurred at every single stage, while irrigations were applied at the other three stages. Thus, there were four different levels of water stress period (D1~D4). Two irrigation levels of 70mm (I1) and 110 mm (I2) were applied according to the average rainfall during growth season of summer maize in 56 years. Consequently, there were a total of 8 treatments, with 3 replicates for each. The plots followed a split-plot experiment design. An extra control treatment with irrigation at all four stages was arranged nearby. The experimental data were used to calibrate and validate the CERES-Maize model with two parameter estimation tools of GLUE (Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) and PEST (Parameter ESTimation). Additionally, an overall evaluation was made with cross validation method for the prediction accuracy of the CERES-Maize model. Results showed that both GLUE and PEST had good stability and convergence for the estimation of genetic parameters of CERESMaize model. The parameters values separately estimated with GLUE and PEST were very close. However, PEST had higher efficiency since it consumed much less time than the GLUE. CERES-Maize model can precisely simulate the growth, development, yield, and soil moisture of summer maize under full irrigation condition, since the absolute relative error (ARE) and relative root mean squared error (RRMSE) values of model calibration and verification were only between 6% and 8%. Anthesis and maturity dates of summer maize were different when water stresses occurred at different growth stages, but CERES-Maize model failed to simulate such kind of phenology differences caused by water stresses. In cross-validation, model simulation errors became bigger when water stresses occurred at early stages, especially at jointing stage. CERES-Maize model failed to correctly simulate the influences of water stresses at early growth stages on the final grain yield of summer maize, which was probably caused by the underestimation of LAI under such conditions. Lower estimated LAI values then made the simulations of ET incorrect. In general, CERES-Maize model was proved to be limited to simulate the growth, yield, and soil moisture of summer maize when under serious water stresses at early growth stages. It is necessary to modify accordingly the CERES-Maize model if it will be used in the simulation of agro-ecological systems of summer maize in arid and semi-arid areas of China.

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宋利兵,陳 上,姚 寧,馮 浩,張?bào)w彬,何建強(qiáng).基于GLUE和PEST的CERES-Maize模型調(diào)參與驗(yàn)證研究[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2015,46(11):95-111. Song Libing, Chen Shang, Yao Ning, Feng Hao, Zhang Tibin, He Jianqiang. Parameter Estimation and Verification of CERES-Maize Model with GLUE and PEST Methods[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(11):95-111.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-08-10
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-11-10
  • 出版日期: 2015-11-10
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