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2000—2013年北部灣海岸帶蒸散量時空動態(tài)特征
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（41361022）,、廣西自然科學(xué)基金資助項目（2014GXNSFBA118221）、廣西教育廳基金資助項目（LX2014452）、廣西北部灣海洋生物多樣性養(yǎng)護(hù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室和北部灣海洋生物資源開發(fā)與保護(hù)重點(diǎn)實(shí)驗室聯(lián)合資助項目（2015ZB07）


Temporal-spatial Dynamic Change Characteristics of Evapotranspiration in Beibu Gulf Coastal Zone during 2000—2013
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    摘要:

    基于北部灣海岸帶2000—2013年MOD16蒸散發(fā)（ET）數(shù)據(jù)和植被類型數(shù)據(jù),，借助于Theil-Sen中值趨勢分析,、Mann-Kendall檢驗以及Hurst指數(shù)等數(shù)理統(tǒng)計方法對海岸帶蒸散量的時空變化特征進(jìn)行定量分析,，并在此基礎(chǔ)上對蒸散量的未來變化趨勢進(jìn)行預(yù)測,。結(jié)果表明：時間尺度上,，2000—2013年北部灣海岸帶蒸散量呈波動增加趨勢,，增速為1.41 mm/a,，高于廣西桂南地區(qū)，海岸東岸蒸散量增速快于全區(qū),，而丘陵地區(qū)和海岸西岸地區(qū)增速慢于全區(qū),。季節(jié)蒸散量由大到小排序為：夏季(111.88 mm)、秋季(93.45 mm),、春季(85.57 mm),、冬季(47.98 mm)，分別占年內(nèi)蒸散量的33.01%,、27.58%,、25.25%和14.16%；空間尺度上,，蒸散量自東北—西南中心線呈現(xiàn)海岸帶西岸年均蒸散量高于海岸帶東岸,，東南地帶年均蒸散量達(dá)到全年最小值的態(tài)勢，ET_sen趨勢度介于-50.93~51.76 mm/a,，海岸帶蒸散量在空間上呈現(xiàn)出減小的趨勢,；空間波動性上，海岸帶蒸散量的變異系數(shù)較大,，其值介于0.02~0.39,。海岸帶中部以及東南部蒸散量處于高波動狀態(tài)，而海岸帶西岸和西北部處于低波動狀態(tài),，其中合浦縣的南流江三角洲蒸散量的波動性最大,；未來變化趨勢上,，海岸帶蒸散量Hurst指數(shù)的范圍為0.25~0.93，平均值為0.68,，呈現(xiàn)單峰右偏分布,，Hurst指數(shù)反持續(xù)序列（7.58%）小于持續(xù)性序列（92.42%），說明研究區(qū)ET未來變化呈持續(xù)性減小的趨勢,。

    Abstract:

    Based on the MOD16 evapotranspiration (ET) data during the period of 2000—2013 and the vegetation type, the mathematical-statistics methods of Theil-Sen median trend, Mann-Kendall test and Hurst index were used to analyze the characteristics of temporal-spatial dynamic changes of ET and its future trend in Beibu Gulf coastal zone. The results showed regarding temporal variations, the annual ET of coastline in Beibu Gulf increased with a fluctuation rate of 1.41 mm/a in the study area from 2000 to 2013, and it was higher than that in the southern area of Guangxi. The trends of ET changing rate in east coast were faster than that of the whole region, while it was slower in the hilly areas and west coastal regions than that of the whole region. The order of increasing rate of seasonal ET was summer (111.88 mm) > autumn (93.45 mm) > spring (85.57 mm) > winter (47.98 mm), which accounted for 33.01%,，27.58%, 25.25% and 14.16% of annual ET, respectively. Regarding spatial distribution, the spatial distribution of averaged annual ET in northeast-southwest centerline showed it was higher in the western coastal zone than that in the east, and the annual ET in southeast region reached minimum and the law of ETs Theil-Sen median trend was from -50.93 mm/a to 51.76 mm/a, the spatial distribution of ET showed a decreasing trend in coastal zone. Regarding the volatility of ET, the variable coefficient of ET was larger and its value was from 0.02~0.39. The ET in central and southeastern coastal zone presented a high volatility level, while the west and northwest of the coastal zone were in a low-volatility state, and the ET in Hepu County of Nanliu River Delta showed the maximum volatility. Regarding the future trend of ET, the Hurst index of ET was changed from 0.25 to 0.93, with a mean of 0.68, presented the right unimodal distribution. And the anti-sustained sequence (7.58%) was smaller than sustained sequence (92.42%), which indicated that the overall ET would take on an ongoing decreasing trend in the future.

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田義超,梁銘忠,胡寶清.2000—2013年北部灣海岸帶蒸散量時空動態(tài)特征[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報,2015,46(8):146-158. Tian Yichao, Liang Mingzhong, Hu Baoqing. Temporal-spatial Dynamic Change Characteristics of Evapotranspiration in Beibu Gulf Coastal Zone during 2000—2013[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2015,46(8):146-158.

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  • 收稿日期:2015-04-12
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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2015-08-10
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