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基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的農(nóng)機總動力預(yù)測
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國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項目(31071331)和黑龍江省教育廳科學(xué)技術(shù)研究資助項目(12511049)


Prediction of Total Power in Agriculture Machinery Based on BP Neural Network
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    摘要:

    分析了BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)用于預(yù)測時存在的不足，進而對基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的時間序列的預(yù)測問題進行了探討。根據(jù)BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)的特點,，依據(jù)Z變換理論,，提出了這一類預(yù)測問題可選用y=x作為傳遞函數(shù)，并分析指出了在BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)中,，以y=x作為傳遞函數(shù)與y=a+bx作為傳遞函數(shù)等價的結(jié)論，同時指出了網(wǎng)絡(luò)結(jié)構(gòu)應(yīng)為兩層網(wǎng)絡(luò),。在此基礎(chǔ)上,，推導(dǎo)了相應(yīng)的計算公式,，并分別以單極性S型函數(shù)和y=x作為傳遞函數(shù)，對于具有增長趨勢的農(nóng)機總動力預(yù)測問題進行了實例計算,。計算結(jié)果表明,，以y=x作為傳遞函數(shù)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在外推效果、訓(xùn)練樣本的數(shù)據(jù)處理區(qū)間影響方面明顯優(yōu)于S型傳遞函數(shù)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò),，并且克服了S型傳遞函數(shù)的BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)在預(yù)測問題中存在的不足,。

    Abstract:

    Based on analysis of the deficiencies of the BP neural network used in prediction, the time series prediction based on BP neural network was discussed. According to the characteristics of BP network structure and Z transform theory, function y=x was put forward to be the transfer function in this kind of prediction. Besides, the conclusion that function y=x and y=a+bx were equivalent in the BP network was proposed. It was pointed out that the layer of network structure should be two. On basis of this, the corresponding formula was derived. With the unipolar Sfunction and function y=x as the transfer function respectively, the total power of agriculture machinery was calculated. The results showed that the performance of function y=x in BP neural network was better than Stransfer function in external push effect and influences of training sample data processing interval. It also overcame the shortcomings of Sfunction used in BP neural network. 

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王吉權(quán),王福林,邱立春.基于BP神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)的農(nóng)機總動力預(yù)測[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機械學(xué)報,2011,42(12):121-126. Wang Jiquan,Wang Fulin, Qiu Lichun. Prediction of Total Power in Agriculture Machinery Based on BP Neural Network[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2011,42(12):121-126.

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  • 在線發(fā)布日期: 2011-12-19
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