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基于時(shí)序分析法的溫室溫度預(yù)測(cè)模型
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Forecast Model of Greenhouse Temperature Based on Time Series Method
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    摘要:

    針對(duì)現(xiàn)有溫室環(huán)境控制系統(tǒng)無(wú)法對(duì)下一時(shí)段溫室溫度進(jìn)行精確預(yù)測(cè)的問(wèn)題,提出采用時(shí)序分析法建立溫度預(yù)測(cè)模型的方法,。以圓拱型連棟薄膜溫室2001年6月6日~2002年9月16日間的溫度為例,首先對(duì)溫度序列進(jìn)行一階年度差分處理來(lái)實(shí)現(xiàn)序列的平穩(wěn)化,;然后根據(jù)一階年度差分序列自相關(guān)系數(shù)和偏相關(guān)系數(shù)的特點(diǎn),,提出采用ARMA(p,q)模型來(lái)擬合溫室溫度,;最后根據(jù)方差估計(jì)和誤差平方和最小的原則,,確定了一個(gè)ARMA(4,4)模型作為夏季溫室溫度的1步預(yù)測(cè)模型,。試驗(yàn)結(jié)果表明,,模型預(yù)測(cè)值與實(shí)測(cè)值相比,最大絕對(duì)誤差為0.8℃,、最大相對(duì)誤差為3.2%,,平均絕對(duì)誤差為0.2℃、平均相對(duì)誤差為

    Abstract:

    1.1%,。Aiming at the existed problem that greenhouse environment control systems can not accurately predict the next stage air temperature inside the greenhouse and provide the basis for the control system to control the temperature optimally, a temperature forecast model based on time series method was developed. The temperature series collected from Jun. 6, 2001 to Sept. 16, 2002 in a hemispherical-roof greenhouse was studied. Firstly, the greenhouse temperature series was annual and first-order differenced in order to get a stationary greenhouse temperature series. Secondly, according to the characteristics of the autocorrelation coefficient and partial correlation coefficient of the first order annual difference series of greenhouse temperature, the ARMA(p,,q) model was put forward to fit the greenhouse temperature. Finally, according to the minimum principles of variance estimate and the sum of squares of errors, an ARMA (4,4) model was determined as the 1-step forecast model of greenhouse temperature in summer. The test results show that the most absolute error and relative error of the forecast temperature of the 1-step forecast model are 0.8℃ and 3.2% respectively, and that the average absolute error and relative error are 0.2℃ and 1.1% respectively.

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左志宇,毛罕平,張曉東,胡靜,韓綠化,倪靜.基于時(shí)序分析法的溫室溫度預(yù)測(cè)模型[J].農(nóng)業(yè)機(jī)械學(xué)報(bào),2010,41(11):173-177. Forecast Model of Greenhouse Temperature Based on Time Series Method[J]. Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery,2010,41(11):173-177.

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